Aurelio Peccei and the Club of Rome's global environment
Igor Bestuzhev Lada's report at the Aurelio Peccei's conference in Gorizia, September 2008.
Bestuzhev-Lada Igor Vasilievich, honorary President of the International Future Research Academy.
Today we pay homage to the memory of Aurelio Peccei – one of the most outstanding figures of the XX-th century. Peccei was among those one and a half dozens of scientific luminaries who really committed a «break-through into the future» - those who converted the future from the object of religious beliefs anf philosophic reflection into the object of scientific research, those who created interdisciplinary field of science – research, study of the future. Those people achieved considerable success on this way, having applied the tools of technological forecasting – revelation, identification of brewing problems and ways of their solution. Today we can state with full authority that futurologists know the XXI-th century better than historians – the XX-th one. Of course, not by way of already occurred events, but in the form of global, regional and local problems with the ways of their solution.
Unfortunately the times of titans of ideas – classical scholars of futurology – have passed, but the problems remained and the level of their solution is insufficient. It can be referred both to dynamics of population and to depopulation of those nations, which passed on to urban way of life, as we can expect that they will disappear off the face of the earth in several generations. The situation is aggravated by the fact that nations in transition from rural to urban way of life continue to reproduce themselves mechanically. In the course of several other generations they will reproduce other two-three billion of consumers. But after that the same destiny will expect them – departure for non-existence. But during those several generations a lot of problems are expecting us – starting from the lack of foodstaff and fuel up to “global Kosovo”.
One more problem – continuing struggle for world domination. Paradoxical situation arose. On the one hand, the USA and Russia step forward like allies against the so-called international terrorism, in reality – against radical Islamism, behind which there are billions of miserable people, deprived of any prospect. On the other hand, the USA are persistently trying to suppress Russia, not to let it rise to the feet and thus contribute, acellerate anti-american coalition taking shape at present.
Thirdly – this list can be continued – during the first quarter of the present century mankind will inevitably meet new generations of desk-top computers, information nets like Internet, capable to work in heuristic mode of operation. This will provide mankind with immense benefits, but at the same time will open vast expances to organized crime and international terrorism. Mankind is not yet ready for solving this type of problems. But the time for solution is only 10-15 years!
We have emphasized three the main from our point of view problems. But the list of them is endless.
We can remind you of ecological problem, which is rapidly becoming crucial and disastrous.
Let us remind you of the settling problem as a result of crowding of billion of people in big urban conglomerations, with present serious rather negative and forecasted disastrous effects for mankind in the future. Let us recall the problem of drug addiction, where we can rightfully include the killers of mankind – nicotine and alcohol. Let us remind of criminality, which is becoming more organized and powerful. Moreover that it is amalgamating with increasing corruption of society and the state.
The prospects of exploration of outer space (organically not suitable for human habitation), of oceanic depths and highlands is highly debatable.
All the above requires more intense work of futurologists. First of all the matter concerns tightly connected net of laboratories conducting fundamental applied works. International Future Research Academy makes every effort in this respect. But in the conditions of isolation and uncoordinated activity of international futurology community these efforts are surely insufficient.
Secondly, regulation of futurology information exchange is required. The instrument is available – Internet. The main is lacking – organization.
And finally, in the third place the programme of future research for the years ahead is wanted. At present such programme is missing, but without it investigation of the future will make no headway for decades without any result.
By the way, cooperation and integration of futurologists and top-level managers have shaped in some countries (at least, in Russia). It would be a good thing if this experience could get a global character, right up to UN participation in this work. We think it could be the best monument to Aurelio Peccei – classic of the modern futurology.
Publication date: 2008.10.03